Ballot support for the Liberals and Conservatives a statistical coin toss this week.

Nanos Weekly Tracking Ending October 10, 2025

Oct 14, 2025

Canada’s political climate, as captured by Nanos Research’s latest weekly tracking, remains finely balanced. The Liberals and Conservatives are locked in a statistical dead heat, polling at 39% and 37% respectively, with the New Democratic Party trailing at 12%. The margin of error renders the contest between the two leading parties too close to call, underscoring the volatility of Canadian federal politics.

Public concern is dominated by economic anxieties. Jobs and the economy have overtaken all other issues, reflecting persistent unease about inflation, housing costs, and healthcare. Immigration and relations with the United States, while still salient, have receded in importance.

Mark Carney leads as the preferred Prime Minister, with 46% support, outpacing Pierre Poilievre and other contenders. The Nanos Party Power Index, a composite measure of ballot preference and leadership impressions, places the Liberals ahead, but not decisively so.

In sum, the Canadian electorate is anxious, divided, and searching for economic reassurance. The outcome of the next election will likely hinge on which party can best address these bread-and-butter concerns, as well as on the perceived competence of its leader.

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KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Please note that paid subscribers have access to detailed Nanos data in our portal including accessible voters, and impressions related to each federal party leader and whether they have the qualities of a good political leader.

Ballot – The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Liberals at 38.5 per cent, the Conservatives at 36.8 the NDP at 12.2 per cent, the Bloc at 6.5 per cent, the Green Party at 3.9 per cent and the Peoples Party at 1.4 per cent.

Nanos Party Power Index – The Nanos Index which is a composite of a series of measures including ballot and leadership impressions has the Liberals at 56.9 points, followed by the Conservatives at 48.8 points, the NDP with 32.9 points, the Greens 27.4 points, the People’s Party 20.8 points and the BQ 34.7 points (QC only).

Preferred Prime Minister – Nanos tracking has Carney as the preferred choice as PM at 46.3 per cent of Canadians followed by Poilievre (27.8%), Davies (3.7%), May (3.4%), and Bernier (1.0%). Fifteen per cent of Canadians were unsure whom they preferred.

Visit the live Nanos data portal where you can dynamically chart ballot, preferred PM and Nanos Index numbers by region, gender and age. The methodology for the weekly tracking is posted here. PDFs of the polling reports are on the Nanos website.

For this report and other Nanos data points visit www.nanos.co.

METHODOLOGY

The Weekly Nanos Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The respondents are recruited from a dual frame (land + cell-lines) random telephone sample of 1,000 Canadians using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over.

The random sample of 1,002 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. Current data is for the four week period ending October 10, 2025.

A random survey of 1,002 Canadians is accurate ±3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

Since voters are not actually able to make a choice between elections, it is interesting to think about party strength and support more broadly. The Nanos Party Power Index fills this need by incorporating more information than just current vote preference.

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