Canadian politics this week is coloured by rising unease about the United States and a noticeable hardening of domestic attitudes. Nanos’s latest tracking suggests that concern over Trump-era U.S. relations has surged, briefly eclipsing traditional staples such as jobs and the economy. The shift follows high-profile speeches by both Mark Carney and Donald Trump at the Davos gathering, which appear to have sharpened Canadian sensitivities toward cross-border turbulence. Against this backdrop, the Liberals maintain a four-point lead over the Conservatives, 38.9% to 35.2%, while the NDP sits at 12.5%.
Carney continues to dominate the preferred prime minister measure, leading Pierre Poilievre by 29 points, marking one of the widest gaps in recent years.
Issue tracking shows Trump/US relations rising sharply as a national concern, jumping from 9.9% to 18.0% over four weeks. Inflation, healthcare, housing pressures and national security remain significant but have been overshadowed by this geopolitical worry.
Longterm trends reinforce a picture of a country uneasy but not panicked: partisan support remains stable, yet voters’ priorities are shifting in ways that reflect a broader sense of geopolitical vulnerability. Canada enters February politically steady, but nervously scanning the horizon.
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KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Please note that paid subscribers have access to detailed Nanos data in our portal including accessible voters, and impressions related to each federal party leader and whether they have the qualities of a good political leader.
Ballot – The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Liberals at 38.9 per cent, the Conservatives at 35.2 the NDP at 12.5 per cent, the Bloc at 9.2 per cent, the Green Party at 2.5 per cent and the Peoples Party at 1.3 per cent.
Nanos Party Power Index – The Nanos Index which is a composite of a series of measures including ballot and leadership impressions has the Liberals at 64.4 points, followed by the Conservatives at 43.9 points, the NDP with 37.1 points, the Greens 28.6 points, the People’s Party 22.3 points and the BQ 38.1 points (QC only).
Preferred Prime Minister – Nanos tracking has Carney as the preferred choice as PM at 54.3 per cent of Canadians followed by Poilievre (24.7%), Davies (4.5%), Blanchet (3.8%), Bernier (1.5%), and May (1.0%). Ten per cent of Canadians were unsure whom they preferred.
Visit the live Nanos data portal where you can dynamically chart ballot, preferred PM and Nanos Index numbers by region, gender and age. The methodology for the weekly tracking is posted here. PDFs of the polling reports are on the Nanos website.
For this report and other Nanos data points visit www.nanos.co.
METHODOLOGY
The Weekly Nanos Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The respondents are recruited from a dual frame (land + cell-lines) random telephone sample of 1,000 Canadians using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over.
The random sample of 1,055 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. Current data is for the four week period ending January 30, 2026.
A random survey of 1,055 Canadians is accurate ±3.0 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
Since voters are not actually able to make a choice between elections, it is interesting to think about party strength and support more broadly. The Nanos Party Power Index fills this need by incorporating more information than just current vote preference.
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