Conservatives support continues to drop in post election period
Week ending June 27, 2025 – The last federal election, even with the Conservatives not winning the greatest number of seats, had CPC support in the category of the Harper majority, and the Mulroney and Diefenbaker wins – historically strong. The period following the election has seen a drop in ballot support with the Liberals at 45, the Conservatives at 31, and the NDP at 12.
Part of the election coalition for the Poilievre Conservatives included blue collar, working voters. Looks like some are returning to the New Democrats.
On the preferred Prime Minister front, Poilievre also significantly trails Carney (Carney preferred PM 52, Poilievre preferred PM 23).
Compared to a year ago the trend line doesn’t look much better for the federal Conservatives – calling up a chart from the Nanos data portal zooming in on the past 12 months, the trendline says it all. In the summer of 2024 the Conservatives were clearly in the driver’s seat. Last year they had a double digit advantage over the Liberals – fast forward to the latest weekly tracking release by Nanos and the Liberals now enjoy a double-digit lead.
This speaks to the importance for the Conservatives to get their leader back in the House of Commons. Part of the current Carney advantage results from the disarray of the opposition. A Leader of the Opposition defeated and now looking for a byelection to get back in parliament, and the other parties still recovering from election results.
Consumer sentiment as measured weekly in the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index remains marginally positive. Canadians are feeling better compared to the beginning of the year but things remain tentative.
For these reports and much much more visit www.nanos.co.
REPORTS RELEASED THIS WEEK
National Ballot: LPC 45, CPC 31, NDP 12 – Poilievre trails Carney by 29 points as preferred PM. – June 24th, 2025, Nanos - Report
Forward-looking Expectations Sub-indice neutral which is its highest score in seven months. – June 23rd, 2025, Bloomberg/Nanos - Report
NANOS IN THE NEWS
For those that might be interested here is my convocation speech as the new Chancellor of Carleton University. My remarks are about nine minutes after the introduction of President Tettey. I talk about filotimo, community and service.
Can Pierre Poilievre outrun the ‘yesterday’s man’ label? Konrad Yakabuski, The Globe and Mail, June 27, 2025. Read more.
Should Carney have promised to immediately call a byelection for Poilievre? Marco Vigliotti, iPolitics, June 26, 2025. Read more.
Private healthcare hurting Huron-Perth residents, unions say. Bill Atwood, The Beacon Herald, June 25, 2025. Read more.
Union warns Ontario health care shifting toward U.S.-style privatization. Nikki Cole, Orillia Matters, June 24, 2025. Read more.
Introducing Carleton University’s New Chancellor. Dan Rubinstein, Carleton University, June 23, 2025. Read more.
Does Doug Ford want Pierre Poilievre’s job? Gerry Nicholls, The Hill Times, June 23, 2025. Read more.
Ontarians want province to prioritize spending on public hospitals instead of private clinics: poll. Pelham Today, June 23, 2025. Read more.