Data Dive with Nik Nanos: Support for Canada’s oil-and-gas sector gets a Trump bump
The Globe and Mail published April 11, 2025
Almost 20 years ago, Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper asserted Canada was an energy superpower. Under Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government, the narrative was not about flexing our energy muscles, but on reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and shifting to green energy.
And then along came Donald Trump. The U.S. President has driven home to Canadians the importance of Canada’s oil-and-gas sector. His administration has implemented tariffs on aluminum, steel and the automotive sector, but oil and gas was left alone. This drove home to Canadians the importance of the oil and gas sector – not just to the Canadian economy, but to the American economy, as well.
Even after almost 10 years of a federal government telling Canadians the country needs to move away from oil and gas, support for the sector remains high – and is increasing.
The University of Ottawa’s Positive Energy program and Nanos Research have been tracking public opinion on a wide range of perceptions over the years. Among the more striking findings is that in the past five years, a growing number of Canadians believe that the oil and gas sector is important to the current economy. Back in 2020 about two out of three people (65 per cent) thought the oil and gas sector was important to Canada’s current economy. As of January, this figure has increased to 88 per cent.
When asked an open-ended question where respondents could say anything to explain their view, the key positive drivers included the sector’s contribution to jobs and provincial economies (42 per cent) and that oil and gas are resources that should be exploited (10 per cent). As context, there were so few individuals who said oil and gas was not important that it did not meet the criteria to be included in the results.
We see a similar trendline when we ask about the future. In 2020, 41 per cent of respondents believed the oil and gas sector would be important to Canada’s future economy; in 2025, it’s 70 per cent.
Canadians have consistently handed out failing marks to federal and provincial governments for how they co-operate – or don’t – when it comes to energy. People are six times more likely to give a rating of poor (32 per cent) or very poor (21 per cent) rather than a good (8 per cent) or very good (1 per cent) score. Not surprisingly, the negative ratings jump from 53 to 78 per cent in the Prairies. We should not be surprised when Alberta Premier Danielle Smith comes out swinging at anything that might jeopardize the oil and gas sector.
Considering those positive numbers on the sector’s importance to the Canadian economy, you’d think people were buying into the “drill baby drill” mantra of Donald Trump.
But Canadians are twice as likely to think that the country should not be aligning our energy policies with the United States; 61 per cent answered “not align/somewhat not align,” while 28 per cent said “align/somewhat align.” Reasons to oppose alignment range from the view that the United States is disregarding climate change (29 per cent), that Mr. Trump can’t be trusted (18 per cent) and that Canada needs to remain independent (17 per cent).
At the same time, support for the government to fund a new pipeline from Alberta to Eastern Canada is quite strong (53 per cent support, another 24 per cent somewhat support it). Although the percentage of those in Quebec who favour the pipeline is lower than the national average (59 per cent in Quebec compared to 77 per cent nationally), it is still a majority opinion.
The key takeaway is that in the wake of an unpredictable relationship with the Trump administration, Canadians are quite supportive of a new government-funded oil pipeline from Alberta to Eastern Canada.
Even with the current common sense of purpose, will today’s urgency to act in response to the change in Canada-U.S. relations be politically sustainable?
Perhaps the positive news is that Mr. Trump has inspired a rethinking in Canada when it comes to our energy future.
Mr. Trump’s reticence to slap tariffs on Canadian oil has put a spotlight on the importance of the sector to both Canada and the United States, and has initiated a dialogue between the federal and provincial governments on energy resilience and the importance of a national energy strategy.
A thank you to Mr. Trump may be in order.
Visit the Nanos website for the report, methodology and more.