For Poilievre - He should have been more careful about his dreams - they might come true
Effective and relentless attacks against Trudeau and Singh have created Poilievre's strategic conundrum
When asked about the current environment - no one foresaw the Liberal turnaround. Back prior to end of the 2024, the Liberals were on the ropes. Just before Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau stepped down his party trailed the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives by 27 points in the Nanos tracking (CPC 47, LPC 20).
It was Pierre Poilievre’s relentless and very effective attacks on Trudeau that created the environment for the Freeland revolt which toppled the former Prime Minister. At the same time, Poilievre’s broadsides into Singh weakened the New Democrats as a party which propped up an unpopular Prime Minister and Liberal government.
At the time, one cannot but recognize this impressive impact. The problem was that Pierre Poilievre was so effective that the Liberal leadership process was set in motion and the Liberals were able to pick a new leader - Mark Carney.
Poilievre’s success and one time massive lead which would have resulted in a parliamentary super-majority also set in motion a mobilization of New Democrat and BQ voters to strategically opt for the Liberals to block the Conservatives.
His dream of knocking out Trudeau and Singh came true. The problem is that it set the groundwork for a new political conundrum. How do Conservatives win an election in an environment of intense strategic voting and consolidation around the front runners? The Harper formula for Conservative success was to split the progressive vote.
With Conservative support in the high 30s and push 40 percent, in a regular election, if there is such a thing, the Conservatives traditionally win elections. Today, with the consolidation of support around the two front runners - a past winning percentage no longer stacks up.
For those attending Conservative rallies, they should feel like winning gatherings - after all, current Conservative support normally would yeild a blue victory.
Wound, maime but keep opponents them alive enough to fight an election would have created better winning conditions for the Conservatives.
I still didn’t get an answer on who the heck are you polling. I know hundreds of Albertans and none of them, have been called by you. Maybe you should have your phone number either not be made by robo calls or at the very least identify your firm ie. Nanos. The reason Liberals won this election was because they made it about President Trump and how his tariffs were going to ruin our economy. People were such sheep and either deaf, dumb or just plain stupid and said oh yeah save us from the US. Our economy is ruined as you well know because the Liberals have spent this country into the toilet over the last 10 years and they intend to continue. They have already sunk this ship and they won’t get rid of Bill C69. Nothing has changed. Mr. carney still speaks out of the side of his mouth and will not even entertain what Alberta feels is necessary for our survival and as a result of that, Canada’s. He keeps saying Canada will be an energy super power but never says the words oil and natural gas or LNG. He’s focused on his damned net zero agenda with solar panels etc. well here’s the thing, keep it up Mr. carney and Alberta WILL vote for a referendum and very likely vote separation. They will keep all our resources, stop the transfer payments to Ottawa and take back our huge surplus (over $200 billion) paid into CPP. The rest of the country will whine and call us names, mostly because they’ve never had to deal with a government who completely ignores their needs. They will also have to deal with far less handouts to Quebec, Ontario and the Maritimes. Thank you Mr. carney and his current cabinet members which were Mr. Trudeau’s before him. Big change. So sad that Alberta even has to have the weekly meetings on separation because of this sneaky, untrustworthy man. Four more years of this, nope I don’t think so. I love Canada but our roots are Alberta, homesteaded in 1886 by our family and all who still live in Alberta. Time for us to stand on our own (and not the 51st state although President Trump would welcome us with open arms. Maybe you should do a current poll on how many people are signing petitions to have a referendum called and make sure all of the people polled are from Alberta and from all over Alberta and not just Edmonton. Thank you for listening.