Liberals open up lead: LPC 44, CPC 33, NDP 11. Preferred PM: Carney 56, Poilievre 22.

Latest Nanos weekly federal political tracking

Canada’s political weather has shifted, and the barometer is moving decisively in one direction. The Liberals have opened a clear lead, sitting in the mid40s nationally, while the Conservatives trail by roughly ten points. This is in the wake of a few weeks in favour of the Carney Liberals.

The gap is even starker on leadership: Mark Carney dominates the preferred–primeminister measure, outpacing Pierre Poilievre by more than thirty points. This is not merely a ballot story; it is a narrative of momentum. The big question is: will the trend favouring the Liberals continue, level off or decline.

Concerns about jobs, inflation and relations with the United States continue to frame the public mood, but they are now filtered through leadership choice rather than protest. The New Democrats remain stuck in low double digits, while smaller parties register largely at the margins.

Taken together, the numbers suggest a consolidation of support around the Liberals and their leader, with persuasion flowing more toward incumbency than disruption. For now, the trend lines point to widening daylight, not a tightening race.

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KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Please note that paid subscribers have access to detailed Nanos data in our portal including accessible voters, and impressions related to each federal party leader and whether they have the qualities of a good political leader.

Ballot – The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Liberals at 43.6 per cent, the Conservatives at 33.2 the NDP at 11.4 per cent, the Green Party at 5.1 per cent, the Bloc at 4.9 per cent and the Peoples Party at 0.7 per cent.

Nanos Party Power Index – The Nanos Index which is a composite of a series of measures including ballot and leadership impressions has the Liberals at 64.1 points, followed by the Conservatives at 46.0 points, the NDP with 33.8 points, the Greens 29.7 points, the People’s Party 21.7 points and the BQ 36.1 points (QC only).

Preferred Prime Minister – Nanos tracking has Carney as the preferred choice as PM at 56.0 per cent of Canadians followed by Poilievre (22.2%), May (2.6%), Bernier (2.5%), Blanchet (2.4%), and Davies (1.9%). Twelve per cent of Canadians were unsure whom they preferred.

Visit the live Nanos data portal where you can dynamically chart ballot, preferred PM and Nanos Index numbers by region, gender and age. The methodology for the weekly tracking is posted here. PDFs of the polling reports are on the Nanos website.

For this report and other Nanos data points visit www.nanos.co.

METHODOLOGY

The Weekly Nanos Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The respondents are recruited from a dual frame (land + cell-lines) random telephone sample of 1,000 Canadians using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over.

The random sample of 1,015 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. Current data is for the four week period ending February 27, 2026.

A random survey of 1,015 Canadians is accurate ±3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

Since voters are not actually able to make a choice between elections, it is interesting to think about party strength and support more broadly. The Nanos Party Power Index fills this need by incorporating more information than just current vote preference.

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