The West is angry

The Nanos Data Dive from The Globe and Mail

The spectre of Alberta separation is on the horizon. The path to independence is clear. The separatist offramp back to Canada’s federation is trickier.

Western alienation and disenchantment with Ottawa are long-standing and part of Alberta’s political DNA. Right now, the mood in the West is quite ugly. Ask people that live in the Prairie provinces the emotions they feel when they think of the federal government – anger tops the list at 35 per cent followed by pessimism at 26 per cent. Feelings of anger and pessimism towards Ottawa are the most intense in the Prairies, outstripping every other region of the country.

We should not be surprised that Reform Party founder and former Opposition leader Preston Manning sounded the clarion call of what he believes to be a backlash against Canada. Mr. Manning’s Globe and Mail opinion piece during the recent federal election, where he asserted that a vote for the Liberals was a vote to fan the flames of Western separation, was grounded in the view that the negative impact of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government on the West was egregious enough to trigger a possible break-up of the federation.

The most imminent threat to Canada’s federation is a growing disenchantment in the oil-rich West, with Alberta being ground zero. A survey for The Globe and Mail by Nanos in April suggested that more than six in ten Canadians felt talk of separation should be taken seriously to one extent or another (32 per cent seriously, another 30 per cent somewhat seriously). We are at moment in time where Western disaffection today is different that in the past.

First, research by Nanos for The Globe and Mail conducted in Alberta shows that a very noticeable proportion of Albertans believe they would have a stronger economy in the long run if they were an independent country (20 per cent) or part of the United States (10 per cent). Views on the economic benefits of leaving Canada are stronger outside of the big cities of Calgary and Edmonton.

Albertans are more likely to agree with Preston Manning that a Conservative majority government led by Pierre Poilievre would make Canada more united as a country (35 per cent), compared to a Liberal majority government led by Mark Carney (21 per cent). Of note, almost one in five Albertans (18 per cent) asserted that no outcome would make Canada more united.

Even with the appetite for a Conservative majority government, the positive news for the Carney Liberal government is that Albertans do believe there are actions that can help improve the relationship. At the top is listen more to the Government of Alberta (22 per cent) followed by treat the Alberta government with respect (19 per cent) or as an equal (14 per cent). Of note is that one in five Albertans (22 per cent) believe there is nothing the federal can do to improve relations with Alberta.

Majority of Canadians think Western separatism is serious: poll

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At the top of the list of recommended priorities for Ottawa when it comes to Alberta is approving pipelines and energy projects (43 per cent). Clearly, the first and biggest hurdle for the Carney government is to move forward on energy. Pipeline politics are complicated. But today’s environment gives leaders political license to create a national energy corridor, which includes moving oil and liquified natural gas from Alberta to the East. If the energy file goes sideways, however, it will play into the forces of separatism within Alberta.

Managing the politics of a budding separatism movement may take more than stick-handling energy projects. A look at the party standings in the Alberta legislature provides insight into additional factors that Premier Danielle Smith is navigating. In the last provincial election, Ms. Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP) won 49 of 87 seats to form a majority government followed by the NDP who won 38 seats. Currently, the UCP stands at 46 seats, the NDP at 36 with two independents and three vacant seats.

With three in ten Albertans believing it would be beneficial to leave Canada, the likelihood of UCP caucus members open to independence should not be dismissed. This casts a different light of the Premier Smith balancing act – advancing the interests of Alberta, engaging the federal government while looking over her shoulder at a separatist movement in her province and likely even in her caucus.

Opinion: Why is Alberta so grumpy? The truth is the West has been struggling badly

Republican Party of Alberta calls for province’s independence at rally in Red Deer

To complicate things is the fledgling independence-minded Republican Party in Alberta which will be looking to field candidates in the three by-elections to be held on June 23. The by-elections will be a litmus test on the real political traction of the independence movement in Alberta.

Alberta’s political landscape is shifting, and the forces of separatism are no longer just murmurs on the fringes. Whether this leads to a referendum or remains a pressure tactic against Ottawa, one thing is certain – Canada’s federation is at a crossroads. The question now is whether political leaders will heed the warning signs and act decisively, or whether Alberta’s simmering discontent will boil over into a seismic reckoning for the country. Time, as always, will be the ultimate judge.